Coffee Industry on Edge as Trump Briefly Proposes 25% Tariffs on Colombian Goods

A dramatic escalation of diplomatic tensions between United States President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro sent a shockwave through a global coffee industry over the weekend.

In a barrage of threats issued through his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said he directed his administration to immediately enact 25% tariffs on imports of Colombian goods, rising to 50% in one week, as well as travel restrictions on Colombian officials, and other financial measures. 

Such tariffs would have immediate and drastic financial implications on the global coffee industry, which is already dealing with extreme price volatility and historically high commodity prices.

Trump’s explosive threats followed Colombia’s initial refusal to accept U.S. military planes carrying deported immigrants. Colombia’s Petro responded with threats of his own, including 25% tariffs on U.S. imports to Colombia. 

A few hours later, the threat of a trade war de-escalated when leaders from both nations, longtime trade allies, announced they’d reached a temporary agreement, with Colombia accepting deportees under certain conditions. 

Colombia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica coffee, has for decades been a key coffee trading partner to the U.S. According to the latest USDA Foreign Agriculture Service report, more than 40% of Colombian green coffee exports were destined for the U.S. in 2023/24. In 2023, the export value of Colombian coffee to the U.S. was approximately $1.78 billion, according to OEC data analysis. 

In a statement on X calling for diplomatic solutions yesterday, the head of the national coffee exporters association of Colombia, ASOEXPORT, Gustavo Andrés Gómez, described would-be 25% tariffs on Colombian coffee a crisis both economic and social for the country (“una crisis económica y social en nuestro país”).

As of this writing, the ICE Futures arabica prices (i.e. “c price”) for green coffee was approximately $3.4875, near an all-time high in the modern, de-regulated market era. 

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