Colombia Coffee Report: Production Decline Predicted Amid Weather and Regulatory Volatility

Daily Coffee News Staff | May 29, 2025

Colombia’s coffee production is forecast to decline by 5.3% in the 2025/26 market year, reaching the equivalent of 12.5 million 60-kilogram bags, according to the latest USDA estimates.

The projected decline follows a strong 2024/25 harvest but reflects damage from excessive rainfall that hindered flowering and fruit development. Although the La Niña weather pattern is expected to weaken in the second half of 2025, producers continue to face long-term disincentives to invest in replanting and renovation.

Exports are projected to decrease slightly to 11.8 million bags, down from 12.3 million in 2024/25.

The United States remains Colombia’s top export market, followed by the European Union and Canada. High prices and favorable exchange rates have supported export revenue, although concerns about sustainability regulations and production constraints remain.

Domestic consumption is expected to remain steady at approximately 2.2 million bags, with high retail prices offsetting modest economic recovery. Meanwhile, imports — mostly from Brazil, Peru and Ecuador — are forecast to increase to 1.5 million bags, helping to meet local demand.

These and other predictions are outlined in the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service annual report on the Colombia coffee sector.

[Note: This is part of a series of DCN stories that will explore USDA FAS annual coffee reports. The information agency typically delivers more than a dozen country-level reports on the coffee sector, each coming from different authors and field offices.]

📉 Export Outlook

Exports are forecast at 11.8 million 60-kilogram bags, a 4.1% decline from the previous year, reflecting lower production.
In 2024/25, exports are estimated at 12.3 million bags, up 2.5% year-over-year following El Niño-driven recovery in yields.
Top export destinations (Oct. 2024-Feb. 2025):
- United States accounts for more than 40% of total exports, followed by the European Union, Canada and Japan.
- U.S. imports of Colombian coffee rose more than 20% year-over-year, although a new 10% tariff may affect the 2025/26 year.
The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation Fedecafe handles approximately 18% of exports, while the rest are handled by private traders.
The Colombian Juan Valdez brand plans to expand North American distribution through a new partnership with Green Coffee Company.

🌱 Production and Growing Conditions

Production for 2025/26 is forecast at 12.5 million bags, down from 13.2 million in 2024/25, mainly due to excessive rain affecting flowering.
In 2024, Colombia’s growing regions experienced, on average, 12 consecutive months of higher temperatures.
Coffee rust incidence is estimated at 5.7%, and borer infestation at 2.2% — both considered manageable figures, aided by resistant varieties.
As of 2024, 87% of Colombia’s coffee area is planted with rust-resistant cultivars, up from 35% in 2010.
Tree density averages 5,340 per hectare, with productivity remaining above 14 bags per hectare.
A new disease-resistant variety, Castillo 2.0, was released by Cenicafe in December 2024, but has yet to show widespread adoption.

☕ Domestic Consumption

Consumption is projected to hold at 2.2 million bags in 2025/26, unchanged from the previous year.
Colombia’s economic recovery is expected to be moderate, with inflation falling to 4.1% and GDP growth at 2.6% in 2025.
While interest in specialty coffee is growing, most households still consume soluble or blended products.
The “Café de Colombia” triangle seal is licensed to 850 domestic brands and remains a key domestic marketing tool.

🏛️ Policy and Sustainability

Fedecafe represents more than 550,000 coffee producers, managing training, research and sales support under a public-private agreement that runs through 2026.
In April 2024, Colombia launched the Coffee Income Compensation Mechanism (MECIC-2024), a price-stabilization mechanism, but it has not been activated, as prices remain high.
Fedecafe is preparing producers to meet the new EU deforestation-free requirements (EUDR), using a geospatial platform to map farm locations.
Colombia exports more than 20% of its coffee to the EU. The EUDR compliance deadline is set for the end of this year for large European buyers and roasters.