Indonesia’s coffee production for the 2025/26 market year (April to March) is forecast at the equivalent of 11.3 million 60-kilogram bags, up 5% from the prior year, according to the latest USDA estimates.
The projected increase is driven by favorable weather and improved input use, especially in key robusta-producing provinces in southern Sumatra. Robusta continues to dominate Indonesia’s annual output, accounting for nearly 87%.
Exports are projected to increase 7% to 6.5 million bags due to the increased production. However, trade with the United States may decline due to the new 32% tariff imposed by Donald Trump. The tariff is currently on pause, although it’s currently scheduled to take effect in July.
Domestic consumption is forecast to grow marginally to 4.81 million bags, with consumers increasingly turning to lower-cost options and ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee as spending remains tight.
These and other predictions are outlined in the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service annual report on the Indonesia coffee sector.
[Note: This is part of a series of DCN stories that will explore USDA FAS annual coffee reports. The information agency typically delivers more than a dozen country-level reports on the coffee sector, each coming from different authors and field offices.]
📉 Export Outlook
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Green bean exports are forecast at 6.5 million bags, a 7% rise from the prior year.
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Exporters accelerated shipments to the EU in early 2025, with Belgium and Germany leading, totaling more than 1.4 million bags.
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Shipments to the U.S. reached 726,000 bags between March 2024 and February 2025, up 23% year-over-year, but may fall due to tariffs.
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The EU deforestation-free regulation (EUDR), taking effect at the end of this year, is also expected to impact future exports. Exporters are preparing due diligence protocols to comply.
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Other key destinations include Egypt, Malaysia, India, Japan and other ASEAN countries.
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Soluble exports remain stable at 1 million bags annually, with no forecasted change in 2025/26.
🌱 Production and Growing Conditions
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Total production is forecast at 11.3 million bags, including:
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robusta: 9.8 million bags
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arabica: 1.5 million bags
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Robusta harvest in Sumatra began in April and is expected to peak between June and July.
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Arabica is harvested twice: April–May and again from September–October, mostly in northern Sumatra, Java and Sulawesi.
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Sumatra accounts for 70–75% of national production, with southern provinces leading robusta production.
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Farmers have expanded fertilizer use and revitalized neglected farms, driven by stronger prices and credit access through village-level aggregators.
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Smallholder farmers manage 98% of the planted crop area in Indonesia, typically farming 1–2 hectare plots.
🏷️ Yields, Inputs and Imports
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Robusta yields remain below 1 ton per hectare and vary widely by region, often trailing arabica yields.
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Farmers continue to face limited access to high-yield seedlings, relying mostly on traditional planting stock.
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Government and exporter support for better cultivars is still restricted to select areas.
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Green bean imports are projected at 400,000 bags for 2025/26, down from 557,000 in 2024/25 due to greater local supply.
🏛️ Policy and Market Conditions
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Exporters remain concerned about the re-imposition of the 32% tariff on Indonesian coffee entering the United States after July 2025.
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Compliance with EUDR is a priority heading into late 2025, with exporters initiating traceability and deforestation-free sourcing documentation.
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No major government-led replanting or expansion programs are underway, limiting near-term growth in area planted.
For historical data and updated trade trends, see the full USDA Coffee Annual Report for Indonesia (May 2025).
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