Ethiopia Coffee Report: Production, Consumption and Exports All Up

Daily Coffee News Staff | June 9, 2025

Ethiopia’s coffee production is forecast to reach the equivalent of a record 11.6 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2025/26 market year (October through September), driven by favorable weather, rejuvenation of aging trees and expanded access to improved seedlings and inputs, according to the latest USDA estimates.

Government campaigns have supported stumping and replanting, contributing to higher yields and better bean quality across key coffee-producing regions.

Coffee exports are projected to grow to 7.8 million bags, supported by policy reforms that allow more producers to export directly. Export earnings reached a historic $1.7 billion in 2023/24, and Ethiopia aims to become the world’s second-largest coffee exporter by 2033 under its long-term development strategy.

Domestic consumption remains robust and is forecast to grow to 3.7 million bags, driven by strong urban demand and a deep-rooted coffee culture.

These and other predictions are outlined in the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service annual report on the Ethiopia coffee sector.

[Note: This is part of a series of DCN stories that will explore USDA FAS annual coffee reports. The information agency typically delivers more than a dozen country-level reports on the coffee sector, each coming from different authors and field offices.]

🌱 Area and Planting Trends

Production forecast for 2025/26 is 11.6 million bags, up 9% from 2024/25.
Area harvested is expected to grow to 790,000 hectares, with average yields rising to 0.88 metric tons per hectare.
Government campaigns have promoted stumping on more than 450,000 hectares of aging trees and supported farmers with improved seedlings, fertilizer and training, with the first fruits arriving in 2024/25.

📉 Exports

Coffee exports are forecast at 7.8 million bags, up 11.4% from 2024/25.
Ethiopia exported 5.63 million bags in 2023/24, a 44% increase in volume and 36% increase in value year-over-year, illustrating growth but also susceptibility to external shocks such as climate or political instability.
Top export markets in order of volume are: Germany, Saudi Arabia, Belgium, the United States, South Korea and Japan.
The United States accounted for 7% of exports by volume in 2023/24.
Roasted coffee exports tripled to over 27,000 bags in 2023/24, showing early success in value-added investments.
The report did not specifically speculate on how the new European deforestation law (EUDR) may affect exports in the coming year.

☕ Domestic Consumption

Domestic consumption is forecast at 3.7 million bags, up from 3.6 million in 2024/25.
Per capita consumption is approximately 2.3 kilograms, supported by Ethiopia’s strong coffee tradition, increased urbanization and rising interest among youth.
Domestic markets often compete with export markets for high-quality arabica, helping support internal pricing.

🏷️ Prices, Imports and Stocks

Export prices surged from 270–280 cents per pound in mid-2024 to 423 cents per pound by April 2025 due to tighter global supply.
The arabica “C” market jumped from 216 to 400.75 cents per pound over the same period, driven by adverse weather in Brazil and Vietnam.
Ending stocks are forecast at 140,000 bags, up from 80,000 in 2024/25, held primarily by exporters and cooperatives.

📣 Policy and Strategy

Ethiopia’s Comprehensive Coffee Development Strategy (2019–2033) targets $4 billion in annual export earnings and aims to make the country the second-largest coffee exporter globally by 2033.
A minimum export price policy, adjusted weekly, links domestic export values to international trends to curb informal trade.
Recent reforms include allowing foreign investors to export raw coffee and moving contract registration oversight to the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority.
Banks can now issue export permits, and contract registration is no longer limited to the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange.