Tanzania’s coffee production for the 2025/26 market year (July to June) is forecast to rise to the equivalent of 1.45 million 60-kilogram bags, up from 1.35 million the previous year, according to the latest USDA estimates.
The growth is attributed to favorable weather, improved farming practices and continued rehabilitation efforts. Robusta is driving production gains, particularly in the Kagera region.
Coffee exports are projected to increase to 1.37 million bags, as expanded output meets growing global demand. The European Union remains the top market for Tanzanian coffee, accounting for more than six times the volume shipped to the United States. However, the report does not mention the new EU deforestation-free (EUDR) law, set to take effect at the end of this year.
Domestic consumption is forecast to grow modestly to 85,000 bags, supported by urbanization and government campaigns to promote coffee drinking, though tea remains the dominant beverage.
These and other predictions are outlined in the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service annual report on the Tanzania coffee sector.
[Note: This is part of a series of DCN stories that will explore USDA FAS annual coffee reports. The information agency typically delivers more than a dozen country-level reports on the coffee sector, each coming from different authors and field offices.]
📉 Export Outlook
-
Total exports are forecast at 1.37 million bags, up from 1.26 million in 2024/25.
-
Green bean shipments reached 1.25 million bags in 2024/25, with December and January as peak months.
-
The EU remains the largest destination, receiving 652,901 bags in 2024. Japan was the second-largest buyer, with 200,254 bags.
-
U.S. imports rose sharply to 112,720 bags in 2024, up from 79,586 the previous year.
-
China’s imports surged to 60,550 bags, while India nearly doubled its volume to 50,934 bags.
🌱 Production and Growing Conditions
-
Total 2025/26 production is forecast at 1.45 million bags, including 750,000 bags of arabica and 700,000 bags of robusta.
-
Robusta gains are led by land expansion in Kagera’s Ngara district, aided by subsidized seedlings and strong prices.
-
Harvested area remains at 265,000 hectares, while total cultivated area grows to 270,000 hectares.
-
Coffee is grown by approximately 320,000 smallholder farmers on farms averaging 0.63 hectares, with most trees older than 25 years.
-
Arabica is produced mainly in Kilimanjaro, Arusha, Tanga, Iringa, Mbeya, Njombe and Mbinga. Robusta is concentrated in Kagera near Lake Victoria.
☕ Domestic Consumption
-
Forecast domestic consumption is 85,000 bags, up from 77,000 in 2024/25.
-
Growth is supported by expanding urban populations and rising income, particularly in Dar es Salaam and Arusha.
-
Tea remains the preferred beverage, though the government is encouraging coffee drinking through low-cost stalls and awareness campaigns.
-
Domestic demand is still low compared to output due to limited roasting infrastructure and high production costs.
🏷️ Inputs, Fertilizer and Imports
-
No green coffee imports are reported for 2025/26.
-
Farmers in the west use far less inorganic fertilizer (2%) compared to those in the north and south (40%).
-
Fertilizer prices vary widely across regions due to import dependence and transportation costs:
📣 Policy and Investment
-
The Tanzania Coffee Industry Development Strategy (2020–2025) supports seedling distribution, pest control and research.
-
In April 2025, the government signed a $30 million MoU with Corus International intended to support production and market expansion.
-
Although the funding is not yet in place, the agreement focuses on boosting coffee quality, increasing farmer incomes and improving export competitiveness.
📦 Stocks
-
Ending stocks are forecast at 51,000 bags, up slightly from 50,000 the prior year.
-
Stocks are held by cooperatives, traders, exporters and large-scale producers.
For additional charts and source data, see the full USDA Coffee Annual Report for Tanzania (May 2025).
Comments? Questions? News to share? Contact DCN’s editors here. For all the latest coffee industry news, subscribe to the DCN newsletter.
Related Posts
Comment