Kenya’s green coffee production is forecast to rise nearly 12% to 950,000 60-kilogram bags in market year 2026/27, with expanded harvested area and improved farm care following two years of high prices, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service annual report.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Production Rebounds With Better Crop Care
The 2026/27 forecast would bring Kenya’s production back to the same level estimated for 2024/25, following a lower 2025/26 estimate of 850,000 bags. The report attributes the expected rebound to farmers reinvesting after two years of favorable prices, allowing for more consistent fertilizer use and better pest and disease control.
FAS said farms in the key Mount Kenya region flowered strongly after a severe drought that lasted into March 2026. Harvested area is forecast to rise slightly to 106,000 hectares as recent plantings mature.
Kenya is also pursuing a coffee expansion program in the Central, Eastern and Rift Valley regions through the government-supported New Kenya Planters Co-operative Union, which uses a revolving fund to provide farmers with seedlings and fertilizers. The report said surging demand for planting material has created a backlog.
Land Pressure Eases, for Now
FAS pointed to a temporary slowdown in the conversion of coffee farms into residential developments near Nairobi, Thika, Kiambu and Nyeri. The report said coffee uprooting in peri-urban areas has slowed over the past two years as Kenya’s real estate market has stagnated.
Without a clear land-use policy protecting arable land, industry analysts cited in the report said the slowdown may be temporary and could reverse if coffee prices fall.
New Law Reshapes Oversight
Kenya’s coffee sector is also entering a new regulatory period following the March 2026 enactment of the Coffee Act. The law shifts regulatory and commercial oversight from the Agriculture and Food Authority to the re-established Coffee Board of Kenya.
The law also creates an independent Coffee Research and Training Institute, separating it from the broader Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization. It codifies reforms underway since 2022, including changes to the Nairobi Coffee Exchange and the creation of a digital direct settlement system designed to move buyer payments more quickly and transparently to farmers.
Exports Rise as U.S. Remains Top Market
Kenya’s coffee exports are forecast to rise from 840,000 bags in 2025/26 to 940,000 bags in 2026/27. Green coffee is expected to account for 900,000 bags of the total, with roasted coffee exports at 30,000 bags and soluble exports at 10,000 bags.
The United States remained Kenya’s largest export destination in 2024/25, accounting for 17.2% of export volume, followed by Belgium at 15.5% and Germany at 12.7%. The report said January 2026 export volumes spiked to a record 231,561 bags, reflecting retroactive duty-free market access to the United States under the African Growth and Opportunity Act and a one-off shipment to Sudan.
Prices at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange fell to about $268.77 per 50-kilogram bag in April 2026, down 28.4% from October 2025, as auction volumes increased. Ending stocks are forecast to rise 23.7% to 120,000 bags, mainly held by cooperative societies.
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