Colombia’s green coffee production is forecast to rise 7.2% to 13.4 million 60-kilogram bags in market year 2026/27, as drier conditions support a rebound from the 2025/26 crop that was hampered by rain, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service annual report.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
The report, prepared by the USDA FAS office in Bogotá, forecasts exports rising 4.6% to 13.4 million 60-kilogram bags, with the United States remaining the top destination, followed by the European Union and Japan. Domestic consumption is forecast to hold steady at around 2.2 million 60-kilogram bags.
Production Rebounds
The 2026/27 forecast represents a recovery from the revised 2025/26 estimate of 12.5 million bags, though it remains below the 14.8 million bags reported for 2024/25. Colombia’s production remains almost entirely arabica, and the country remains the world’s second-largest arabica producer, behind Brazil.
FAS said the expected increase follows a transition from La Niña to a strong El Niño. The report said Colombian coffee production has historically performed better during El Niño events as coffee plants can tolerate higher temperatures and water stress when soil moisture remains adequate.
For 2025/26, FAS said excessive rainfall reduced flowering and bean development, contributing to a 9.4% production decline from the previous estimate. The report also said continuous rainfall can raise coffee leaf rust pressure, although national rust and coffee berry borer levels remained within control thresholds in early 2026.
Downward Prices Lead to Renovation
Colombian domestic coffee prices have eased since late 2025, following stronger global production expectations and changes in the Colombian peso-to-dollar exchange rate. As of February 2026, prices stood at COP 2,174,143 per 125-kilogram bag, down 30% from the same period a year earlier.
FAS said lower prices are encouraging more replanting and renovation, since producers face a lower opportunity cost when removing or pruning older trees. The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation (Fedecafe) has also recommended fertilization, weed management, efficient harvesting and temporary shade to help producers manage drought conditions.
Costs remain a major concern. The report said labor accounts for 69% of Colombian coffee production costs, while inputs and fertilizers account for 25%. Rising fertilizer costs, labor costs tied to a minimum wage increase of more than 20% and labor shortages are all pressuring producers.
Exports Rise, Imports Fall
Total exports are forecast to rise to 13.4 million bags in 2026/27, including 12.2 million bags of green coffee, 1 million bags of soluble coffee and 200,000 bags of roasted coffee.
The United States remains Colombia’s largest export market, with more than 40% market share. From October 2025 to February 2026, exports to the United States, Japan and South Korea rose more than 6% year over year and accounted for half of total exports.
Imports are forecast to fall about 18% to 2 million bags as domestic production recovers. FAS said 2025/26 imports were revised to about 2.4 million bags, roughly 2.5 times the 2024/25 level, as lower domestic production increased demand for lower-quality coffee from Brazil, Peru and Ecuador.
A Note on EUDR
Ending stocks are forecast to fall 22.6% to 670,000 bags in 2026/27, down from a revised 866,000 bags in 2025/26.
Meanwhile, Fedecafe has said 90% of Colombian coffee lots are already compliant with the European Union’s deforestation regulation (EUDR), while the remaining production is still under review, according to FAS. The EU represents more than 20% of Colombia’s green coffee exports.
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