The ICO Coffee Report and Outlook is published twice per year. Image credit: “Sacks of coffee beans” by drukelly is licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) has released its second Coffee Report and Outlook, including a broad overview of the global coffee sector in terms of production and consumption, economic analysis and predictions for the coming year.
The international nonprofit organization — which maintains statistics on the global green coffee sector and counts nearly all of the world’s coffee-producing countries among its membership — released the inaugural edition of the biannual (twice per year) report in April.
Spanning 43 pages and rich with graphics, the ICO’s December Coffee Report and Outlook highlights a number of regional discrepancies in coffee production patterns, including a “split between the expanding Americas and the shrinking rest of the world.”
On the consumption side, the ICO initially predicted a modest uptick in consumption rates for the 2022/23 market year. However, citing a “challenging economic environment” — including high interest rates in key markets combined with reduced coffee stocks and higher prices on the commodities market — the group found that coffee consumption actually decreased by 2%.
Here are some other key findings in the December 2023 ICO Coffee Report and Outlook…
On Coffee Production
World coffee production increased by 0.1% to 168.2 million bags in coffee year 2022/23. Said the ICO, “The stagnant growth rate belies the tremendous changes at the regional level, with the coffee world neatly split between the expanding Americas and the shrinking rest of the world.”
Asia & Oceania coffee production decreased by 4.7% in 2022/23, while production from Africa decreased by 7.2%.
The new total global production estimate (Arabica and Robusta) for the year 2023/24 year is for a 5.8% increase to the equivalent of 178 million 60-kilo bags. Arabica is expected to account for 102.2 million bags, while Robusta is expected to increase to 75.8 million. Said the ICO, “The biennial production effect will play a large role in the outlook, especially for Brazil and the Arabicas, as the impact of the July 2021 frost continues to be resolved.”
On Coffee Consumption
World coffee consumption recorded a decrease of 2.0% to 173.1 million bags in the year 2022/23. Said the ICO, “Consumption in coffee year 2022/23 did not faithfully follow the established pattern due to the impact of the high cost of living, falling disposable incomes and a long stocks drawdown.”
World coffee consumption is expected to grow in 2023/24 by 2.2% to 177.0 million bags, with non-producing countries making the biggest contribution to the overall increase.
Said the ICO, “The world coffee consumption outlook for coffee year 2023/24 is broadly framed by the assumption that the global economy will continue to grow at above 3.0%, and that the industry will respond to the large drawdown of stocks, which will be positively reflected in apparent consumption.”
Find the full report here.
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