Guatemala’s total green coffee production is forecast to rise to 3.26 million 60-kilogram bags in market year 2026/27, with more harvested area and more rust-tolerant hybrids bearing fruit, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service annual report.
The forecast represents a 3.3% increase from the USDA’s 2025/26 estimate of 3.155 million bags. Total exports are forecast to reach 3.2 million bags, up 7.4% from 2.98 million bags in 2025/26.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Production Rises With More Harvested Area
Harvested coffee area in Guatemala is forecast to increase 2% to 345,000 hectares in 2026/27, supported by maturing trees and ongoing plantation renovation. The number of bearing trees is expected to rise from 1.628 billion to 1.662 billion.
Arabica continues to dominate Guatemala’s coffee sector, accounting for about 98% of planted area and 96% of total production. Robusta production is forecast to hold steady at approximately 130,000 bags.
About one-third of Guatemala’s arabica plantations have been renovated with rust-tolerant hybrids, according to the report. The 2024/25 harvest also continued to lean heavily toward higher-quality arabica, with 81% classified as strictly hard bean coffee.
Yields are projected at 9.45 bags per hectare in 2026/27, up from 9.33 bags in 2025/26 but below the 9.67 bags reached in 2024/25. The report said yields remain sensitive to weather, pests and disease pressure.
Pests and Costs Remain Concerns
The 2024/25 harvest saw elevated coffee leaf rust, with incidence reaching up to 20% from January through March amid higher moisture and temperatures, according to the report.
The Guatemalan national coffee association ANACAFE also reported the presence of the coffee branch and stem borer Xylosandrus compactus in September 2025 in growing regions including Zacapa, Retalhuleu, Quetzaltenango and San Marcos. The pest had first been reported in Guatemala in 2024 in avocado and cedar before appearing in some robusta trees.
Higher international coffee prices have helped producers fund nutrition programs and disease controls. Yet the report said fertilizer and chemical costs are expected to affect the following season, while oil prices in Guatemala had risen 20% as of March 2026.
Exports Rising, U.S. Remains Top Destination
Total exports are forecast at 3.2 million bags in 2026/27, including 2.88 million bags of green coffee. Green coffee is expected to represent about 90% of Guatemala’s total coffee exports, while soluble exports continue to grow.
The United States remains Guatemala’s largest coffee destination, accounting for 42% of exports, followed by Japan, Canada, Belgium, Italy and South Korea.
Coffee export prices in 2024/25 averaged above $300 per 60-kilogram bag, while total export value reached $1.284 billion, according to the report.
Consumption and Stocks Slightly Up
Domestic coffee consumption is forecast to increase to 900,000 bags in 2026/27, up 2.9% from 875,000 bags in 2025/26.
Soluble (instant) coffee continues to account for the majority of domestic consumption. The report forecasts soluble consumption at 600,000 bags, or 67% of total domestic use, while roasted and ground consumption is forecast at 300,000 bags.
Ending stocks are forecast to rise modestly to 16,000 bags, following reductions tied to higher prices in previous years.
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