Major Ag Lender Warns of Arabica Land Losses from Climate Change

One of the world’s largest agricultural lenders issued a stark warning to the coffee industry last week, saying broad areas now used for arabica production could become climatically unsuitable by 2050 as the planet warms.

Published by global agricultural lender Rabobank, the analysis says that 8% of current arabica growing areas globally are already classified as climatically unsuitable, while that figure could rise to about 20% over the next 25 years under the report’s warming scenario.

Honduras could see its suitable arabica growing area drop to just 12% of its current production area, while Ethiopia could see suitable zones expand and highly suitable areas triple, according to the report.

The Next Decade Will Be Decisive

Authored by Rabobank climate risk specialist Camila Bonilla-Cedrez, data scientist Lilian Lin and beverages analyst Guilherme Morya, the report applies a four-category suitability classification system — very suitable, suitable, marginally suitable and unsuitable — to current arabica production zones, then projects how those zones may shift by 2050.

“The next decade will be decisive,” the report states. “Whether coffee chains can remain resilient in the face of climate change will depend on the choices made today by producers, buyers and investors alike.”

Specialty Coffee to Suffer

Rabobank’s authors noted that “specialty coffees and brand origins may suffer the most” as warming temperatures reshape arabica-growing landscapes.

“The conditions under which coffee is grown — soil type, altitude, sunlight, rainfall and temperature — shape its flavor profile, much like terroir in wine,” the report states. “As climate change alters these factors, the distinctive flavors associated with specific origins may shift or become harder to maintain.”

Country-by-Country Breakdown

The Rabobank report builds on methodology used in a 2022 peer-reviewed study by researchers at Zurich University of Applied Sciences that projected sharp declines in coffee suitability by 2050, including a drop of more than 50% in the highest-suitability areas across climate scenarios.

The four countries most closely examined — Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia and Honduras — together accounted for 58% of global arabica exports in 2023/24, led by Brazil at 36.5 million 60-kilogram bags, followed by Colombia at 11 million, Ethiopia at 5.6 million and Honduras at 4.7 million.

The analysis estimates that Brazil will see the largest reduction by absolute volume, with suitable arabica zones falling from 81% to 62%.

Colombia faces a broader geographic decline, with unsuitable zones rising from 7% to 18% of current production and suitable zones shrinking from 56% to 45%.

Honduras faces the sharpest projected drop, with suitable zones falling from 53% to just 12%, leaving an estimated 85% of current production in marginal conditions.

Ethiopia is the standout in the other direction, with suitable zones growing from 39% to 50% and highly suitable areas tripling from 4% to 13%.

Guatemala is projected to remain relatively stable, with marginal zones dominant but conditions broadly similar to today.

The Rabobank report arrives about six weeks after an analysis from Climate Central found that coffee-growing regions in major producing countries have been exposed to significantly more coffee-harming heat in recent years because of climate change.

A wide body of research over the past decade has pointed toward significant arabica suitability losses in many existing producing regions, particularly in parts of the Americas and Asia, while suggesting better prospects in some higher-elevation areas and parts of East Africa.

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