Uganda’s green coffee production is forecast to rise 0.9% to 7.16 million 60-kilogram bags in market year 2026/27, as high prices have encouraged more planted area and more robusta production, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) annual report.
The report forecasts exports rising 1.9% to 6.83 million 60-kilogram bags. Domestic consumption is forecast to rise 1.5% to 335,000 60-kilogram bags, supported by urban demand, local roasting and hospitality-sector growth.
Despite the steady growth, Ugandan authorities have signaled a long-term investment shift away from green coffee exports toward value-added exports such as roasted and soluble coffees.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Modest Production Growth
The 2026/27 production forecast would put Uganda slightly above the 7.095 million bags estimated for 2025/26 and the 6.7 million bags estimated for 2024/25. Robusta is expected to account for 6.025 million bags, while arabica production is forecast at 1.135 million bags.
Robusta is grown mainly in the central region, while production is expanding northward due to investment and available land. Arabica is grown primarily in higher-altitude areas in the east and west.
Planted area is forecast to rise to 595,000 hectares, up from 590,000 hectares in 2025/26, partly due to a gradual shift from timber production to coffee in the Masaka region. Harvested area is forecast to rise to 580,000 hectares.
Relatively High Prices Driving Expansion
Ugandan coffee prices remain well above recent norms. Export prices rose from $2.63 per kilogram in 2023/24 to $4.64 in 2024/25, before easing slightly to $4.51 in 2025/26.
FAS said the high-price environment reflects tight global supply and has helped support farm expansion. Smallholder farmers, typically farming 0.5 to 2.5 hectares, account for about 90% of Uganda’s coffee production. Medium and large-scale estates account for the remaining 10%.
Input costs and pests remain key limits. Fertilizer use is increasing but remains low, especially among smallholders, while prices for common nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers have been rising. Coffee berry borers and leaf rust also remain concerns among farmers.
Exports Rise as EU Dominates
Uganda exports more than 98% of its coffee as green coffee. The 2026/27 export forecast of 6.83 million bags reflects strong global demand, especially from the European Union, the United States and emerging Asian markets.
The EU remains Uganda’s dominant buyer, accounting for about 73% of exports in 2024/25. Morocco and the United States each accounted for about 6%, followed by China at 4%. FAS said Morocco and China are gaining importance as Uganda expands beyond traditional markets.
FAS also revised Uganda’s 2025/26 export estimate upward to 6.7 million bags, citing additional shipments to non-reporting destinations, particularly Sudan.
Policy Pushes Value Addition
Uganda is planning a gradual shift away from reliance on unprocessed green coffee exports, with a focus on roasted and soluble coffee as part of a broader value-addition strategy. Officials indicated the transition will be gradual, rather than an immediate ban on green coffee exports, as local processing capacity and infrastructure develop.
The report also noted that the Uganda Coffee Development Authority was folded into the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries following passage of the National Coffee Amendment Bill. The change moved coffee regulation, extension, quality control and export promotion into the ministry, with mixed early feedback from stakeholders.
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