The United States under the Donald Trump administration is continuing to upend established coffee supply-and-demand dynamics through new tariff threats and applications.
Within the past week, the U.S. and its foreign trade partners have signaled several key deals that could significantly transform the activities of U.S.-based green coffee traders, including a 50% tax on Brazilian imports, a 19% tax on Indonesian imports, a lingering deal with Vietnam, and China’s planned tax-free plan for imports from all of Africa.
These developments are in addition to the baseline rate of 10% that Trump announced for all countries that are not otherwise specified at a different rate.
It should be noted that these new U.S. tariffs are paid by U.S. businesses, namely importers, who send the money to U.S. Customs and Border Protection before goods can be released. In specialty coffee, where margins for traders tend to be slim, the tariffs are likely to be felt downstream by roasters and consumers.
Here are some of the latest coffee-related tariff developments:
Tentative U.S.-Indonesia Agreement
On Tuesday, July 15, Trump said the U.S. and Indonesia reached an interim deal through which Indonesian exports to the U.S. will face a 19% tariff, revised down from the initial 32% rate that Trump threatened on April 2. The deal also includes commitments from Indonesia to purchase U.S. energy, agricultural goods and Boeing jets.
There was no indication from either U.S. or Indonesian leaders during yesterday’s announcement that Indonesian coffee would be exempt from a new 19% tax, which is scheduled to take effect Aug. 1.
Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coffee producer and the third-largest producer of robusta. In the 2024/25 year, the United States imported the equivalent of 726,000 60-kilo bags of Indonesian coffee.
50% Tariff Threat on Brazilian Imports
Last week, Trump shocked the entire coffee world with the announcement of a 50% tariff threat on all imported Brazilian goods, including coffee, effective Aug. 1.
Approximately 30% of the U.S. green coffee supply comes from Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer.
The head of the Brazilian coffee exporters council CECAFÉ told Daily Coffee News that such a tax would inevitably lead to higher prices for U.S. coffee roasters and consumers.
China Removing Tariffs on African Coffee
Yesterday, state-run news agencies in China reported that customs officials are planning to eliminate all remaining tariffs on imports from the 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic ties.
China previously eliminated tariffs on goods from 33 of Africa’s least-developed countries (LDCs) in December 2024, and the new policy extends that free-trade agreement to 20 more countries.
Analysts have predicted that the decision could ultimately boost the African coffee sector by expanding export channels to China, which represents a rapidly growing consuming market.
Vietnam Holding at 20%
After being threatened with a 46% tariff back in April, Trump and leaders from Vietnam announced earlier this month they’d reached a tentative agreement that would put the tariff rate at 20%, effective Aug. 1.
Neither nation has signaled that coffee would be exempt from the rate. Vietnam remains the world’s second-largest coffee producer behind Brazil, and the U.S. is the second-largest buyer of Vietnamese coffee, behind Germany.
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Nick Brown
Nick Brown is the editor of Daily Coffee News by Roast Magazine.
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