Vietnam’s green coffee production is forecast to rise 2.5% to 32.5 million 60-kilogram bags of green bean equivalent in market year 2026/27, as high prices from 2024 and 2025 encouraged expanded robusta production, according to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) annual report.
The report forecasts exports rising 1.6% to 28.95 million 60-kilogram bags, while domestic consumption is expected to rise 2% to 5 million 60-kilogram bags. Falling prices from recent peaks have also pushed farmers, traders and exporters to release stocks, supporting near-term export flows.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Production Growth Led by Robusta
The 2026/27 forecast of 32.5 million bags would put Vietnam’s production well above the 31.7 million bags estimated for 2025/26 and 29 million bags in 2024/25. The new forecast includes 31.4 million bags of robusta and 1.1 million bags of arabica.
Robusta production is forecast to rise 3% from 30.5 million bags in 2025/26, while arabica production is forecast to fall from 1.2 million to 1.1 million bags. Robusta harvested area is forecast to rise to 644,000 hectares, up 2.2% from 630,200 hectares the previous year.
The Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, known as MAE, estimated total coffee area at about 730,000 hectares. FAS said replanted and renewed areas from the ministry’s 2021-2023 coffee replanting program are entering stable, high-yield production, helping lift output.
Aging Trees and Higher Costs Remain Concerns
The Western Highlands Agriculture and Forestry Science Institute, a Vietnamese agricultural research body, estimates that about 30% of the country’s coffee area is 20 years or older and needs replanting or renewal to maintain productivity and quality.
High prices have encouraged more production, but the report also points to risks from overuse of fertilizer and irrigation. Local farmers reported fertilizer and fuel costs rising about 30% from the previous year, while labor costs rose 33%.
Weather is another concern. FAS said precipitation in the Central Highlands coffee provinces fell below normal from January to March 2026, while citing earlier U.S. climate forecasts showing elevated odds of El Niño conditions emerging in mid-2026 and lasting through the end of the year.
Exports Rise as Stocks Are Released
Exports are forecast at 28.95 million bags in 2026/27, up from 28.5 million bags in 2025/26 and 25.2 million bags in 2024/25. Green coffee exports are forecast at 25.4 million bags, while soluble and roasted exports are forecast at 3.55 million bags.
Vietnam exported about 15.7 million bags in the first half of 2025/26, up 27.5% from the same period a year earlier. Major traditional markets led the way, including Germany, Italy, the United States, Spain, Russia and Japan, while emerging Asian markets such as India, Cambodia, Thailand and China also increased purchases.
Robusta Prices Fall From Recent Peaks
Vietnam’s average export price reached $5,127 per metric ton in the first half of 2025/26, down 9% from the same period a year earlier. In March 2026, the export price was $4,553 per metric ton, down 22% from March 2025.
Domestic robusta prices in the Central Highlands averaged about VND 102,800 per kilogram in the first half of 2025/26, down 16% from the same period a year earlier. FAS said brokers, middlemen and exporters are moving stocks faster amid concern that prices may fall further, while some farmers continue holding coffee for better terms.
Quality and Domestic Demand Grow
FAS said Vietnam is shifting from a volume-focused exporter toward higher-quality and more traceable coffee. About 40% of the country’s coffee area has sustainability certifications such as Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, 4C and UTZ, while MAE and exporters are working toward European Union deforestation regulation compliance.
Domestic consumption is forecast to rise to 5 million bags, supported by a growing middle class, tourism, home brewing, specialty coffee and young consumers seeking premium robusta, arabica and modern brewing formats.
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